20161231 2016年總結

成本/股息	市值	盈虧	回報率
1163033.23	1126375.45	-36657.78	-3.15%
44312.85	計入股息=>	7655.07	0.66%

回顧：

1. 買賣太多，35次買入，15賣出。

2. 買入太急，多數因為股價下跌而接飛刀。應考慮安全邊際(如估值之下15%)。

3. 賣出太早，如維他奶、中銀、匯豐、九倉。因現金比例太低或想止蝕。

4. 盈富平均買入價太高($23.7)，沒能在高位如24.8減持。

2016-12-08 Kelly criterion lecture

剛讀完Lecture 2: The Kelly criterion for favorable games:
stock market investing for individuals https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Slides/lecture_2.pdf
結論是：I’m not going to discuss whether you should invest in the stock market at
all. If you choose to do so, here’s the academic viewpoint.
The default choice is (something like) a S&P index fund, available with very low expenses.
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If you really want to do better then there are three vaguely plausible ways
none of which I recommend.
Borrow money, if you can find a low interest rate.
Diversified Kelley-optinmized portfolio, like IFA.
Long term market timing such as the Shiller PE ratio [show

2016-12-01 增持港燈(2638)

今天指數升而REITS和公用股卻跌。手痕增持了港燈(2638)@6.79。